Average mortgage rates trended upward slightly last week, but remain under the 4.5 percent threshold for the most popular loans.
The rise follows news of the Fed’s decision to curb its bond-buying stimulus program, a program that has helped to spur the economic recovery and support home-buying affordability.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 4.47 percent, according to the latest survey from mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. That’s an increase of 0.05 percent week-over-week and 1.1 percent year-over-year. The 30-year fixed previously spiked to nearly 4.6 percent in August before settling in late September. One month ago, it averaged 4.29 percent.
The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage was also on the rise, climbing 0.08 percentage point week-over-week to 3.51 percent. A year ago, the 15-year average was 2.65 percent — an increase of 0.86 percentage point. It was remained below the 3.5 percent threshold since late September.
Hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages also saw an uptick. The five-year ARM climbed slightly to 2.96 percent, up from 2.94 percent; while the one-year ARM rose by 0.06 percentage point to 2.57 percent.
Mortgage rates previously spiked in July and August due to speculation that the Federal Reserve would curb its bond-purchase program, part of massive stimulus policies involving $85 million worth of Treasury notes and mortgage-backed securities. However, rates leveled out in September after the Federal Reserve indicated that it would maintain its bond-buying program at current levels until employment numbers improved. The program had helped offset dramatic gains in real estate prices and kept affordability elevated.
As predicted, improved unemployment numbers and housing starts in Q4 proved to be enough for the Fed, as it announced on Wednesday that it would begin slowly scaling back its bond-buying program by $10 billion starting in January.
Prior to the announcement, mortgage rates had already begun to climb slightly. However, the news did not result in a dramatic rate increase, as many had previously anticipated. Still, key mortgage rates will be directly influenced by the Federal Reserve’s decision in the short-term.
“The Fed noted that the economy expanded at a modest pace, but the unemployment rate remains elevated,” Frank E. Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist, said in a statement. “In addition, housing starts in November rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,091,000, the highest rate since February 2008. Permits were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,007,000 in November, 7.9 percent higher than in November 2012.”
In the latest Mortgage Rate Trend Index by Bankrate.com, 57 percent of the loan analysts polled believe that rates will continue to rise.
“The near-term direction of mortgage rates will be heavily influenced by the Fed’s decision on tapering,” opined Michael Becker, mortgage banker at WCS Funding Group. “That decision is being announced after I write this. But I do know that Fannie and Freddie announced increases in both their guarantee fees and their loan level price adjustments. No matter what the Fed says, this will cause rates to increase in the coming weeks, so I am voting for mortgage rates to rise.”
Source: 12/2013, National Association of REALTORS®